Pressure on India is not pressure on Russia. We are making a strategic error by claiming to punish India for supporting Russia. This is largely a ruse; the 50% secondary tariffs on India have little to do with Russia. This clip from Thursday focuses on Russia-Ukraine, making the point that we have not applied any pressure on Moscow at all. In fact, without the guarantee of a trilateral meeting, Putin is actually being rewarded for conducting (in the 6 months since Inauguration) the most intensive and deadly (for Ukrainian civilians) aerial assaults on Ukraine of the war.
Let me explain what is going on with these secondary tariffs (not sanctions) against India. The Administration put 25% tariffs on India, and then added another 25% penalty for importing Russian oil (even though it seems at a price compliant with the US agreed price cap) and re-exporting it, mainly to Europe. But this isn’t penalizing Russia. It is American importers (and then about 60% of this passed on to US consumers) who will be paying 64% on apparel and 52% on diamonds (India cuts 90% of diamonds in the world market), carpets, furniture, etc. Smartphones and pharmaceuticals (India is a huge supplier of generic drugs) are exempt. Ironically, so is the fuel that Trump is complaining about, but we don’t import this from India so it doesn’t matter. But here is the point, how does this pressure Russia at all? It doesn’t. Russia doesn’t care.
AND India is not going to stop its imports of oil from Russia. In fact, it is worse than that. Not only is this not going to work, it has huge second-order effects. In a matter of a month, the Administration has taken a very strong and strategic bilateral relationship and is beginning to reverse it. PM Modi had a warm chat with Putin today, Brazilian President Lula, and announced his first visit to China in 7 years for later this month. Indians across the political spectrum are talking about whether they made a mistake in pivoting from Russia to the US. Modi has put US defense purchases on hold and canceled an upcoming visit by his Defense Minister. Things are bad.
Why won’t India capitulate? Why are they so offended? The tariffs are actually the poison icing on the cake. Modi was already very angry about President Trump’s intervention to stop the escalating attacks between India and Pakistan in June. I applaud Trump’s efforts; this is what he is supposed to do. But India has always strongly objected to any interference in its management of relations with Pakistan…there are historical reasons for this. But it wasn’t just this. The Administration is moving closer to Pakistan, with Eric Trump’s crypto company doing a deal with Pakistan in the weeks before the clash with India. Then after, President Trump invited Pakistan’s military leader, Army Chief of Staff Munir, to the White House for lunch, without any civilian representative present (a huge change in policy that has always tried to support civilian, elected leaders). Then Pres. Trump trolled Modi by talking about a deal worked with Munir to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves, saying maybe India can buy Pakistani oil instead of Russian. Well, so much for a partnership of common interests in containing Chinese regional aggression. Pakistan’s “all-weather friend” is China, who provided the fighter jets that shot down at least one Indian French-made fighters during an intense and huge air battle.
While I have no objections in figuring out some common interests with Pakistan, we should not kid ourselves that Pakistan’s friendship can be bought. The US is overwhelming in unpopular in Pakistan, and that is not going to change. Our geostrategic interests really include a good relationship with India. This is not going well.
