It’s been a while since I’ve written a substantive post on Iran…too many ups and downs when it is actually just Groundhog Day.

But I think we have enough information to observe that Iran appears to be in a different place, even if we are not. Iran has assumed a more confident and aggressive strategic posture in response to US offers to negotiate. They are on the offensive with the aim of forcing US concessions on control of the Strait.

Let’s look at a timeline of the last week of events. If you were Iran, what might you conclude about US constraints and resolve?

• 26-27 July — Cyber attacks on municipal water systems in seven states. All signs point to Iran. Hackers reset passwords and system access, but did not manipulate chemical levels (which could be life-threatening) as far as has been reported. Iran is saying…look what we can do to Americans.
• 27 July — After 13 days of strikes, Pres Trump declared the end “at Iran’s request”
• 28 July — Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at US troops in Jordan during Pres. Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu, the first Iranian pre-emptive strike of its kind. As Ben Taleblu says in his excellent WP op ed, “this is the act of a regime that sees its survival linked to escalation more that engagement,” and we should expect more. https://wapo.st/4fWbmkO
• 28/29 July — US-Saudi retaliation against Iraqi militias for strikes against US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.
• 29 July — Drone attack (perp unknown but surely Iran approved if not conducted) on two US LNG storage tankers in Egyptian waters near the Suez Canal. Horizontal escalation: Iran is saying it could shut down another choke point and put US assets at risk anywhere.
• 29 July – 01 Aug — Pres Trump threatens to escalate “harder than ever before,” and this is Iran’s “last chance.” Suggests the strikes will be joint with Israel.
• 01 Aug — Pres Trump calls off the strike, marking the second time in two weeks of threat/backdown pattern.
• 03 Aug — Pres Trump says it is Iran’s last chance. Iran attacks a cargo vessel transiting near Oman; separate but unconfirmed reports suggest Iran may have targeted a U.S. base in Kuwait with drones.

The U.S. continues to fight a war of capabilities, while Iran is fighting a war of wills. The IRGC are much more willing to risk their finite capabilities than we are; they know that and no longer appear deterred. Iran’s leaders are united, and laser-focused on a clear goal: Tehran will manage the Strait of Hormuz. They are willing to exact costs on the US and absorb retaliation until we capitulate.
Thoughts from tonight with my colleague