Prigozhin’s Mutiny: A Reminder About Analytic Humility
It appears that the U.S. Intelligence Community scored a success in warning senior leaders that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning some sort of armed action against the Russian military. We would not have known that had not people inside the U.S. Government shared this with the press.
Lessons From a White House Intelligence Briefer
On this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration Beth Sanner delivers a candid and enriching lecture about being an intelligence professional at the highest level in the White House.
The Chinese Balloon Was a Necessary Wake-Up Call
The United States tends to react to unexpected events with a combination of fear, political recrimination, and bravado—not a particularly effective mix when it comes to evaluating and responding to potential crises.
What To Expect from Biden at COP27, ASEAN, and G20 Summits
President Biden is about to depart on a trip with an ambitious itinerary: meetings on climate at the COP27, on relations with Southeast Asia at the U.S.-ASEAN summit, and on a range of political and economic issues at the G20. With so many high priority topics to cover, what’s realistic to expect? What are the big challenges that the White House should focus on? And how might the outcome of this week’s elections factor in?
Russia Still Has Willing Partners in the Middle East
Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, the prevailing view in Washington was that Russian President Vladimir Putin had become a master of the geopolitical game. He had a well-armed and capable war machine and had managed to extend Moscow’s influence well beyond Russia’s near abroad into Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Yet although Putin has not lived up to this hype given his disastrous late-February blitz, the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.
Carnegie Connects: U.S. Intel and the Ukraine Crisis With Beth Sanner
The U.S. Intelligence Community has played a critical role in predicting Putin’s invasion and countering Moscow’s disinformation campaign as the Biden administration purposefully released intelligence on the Kremlin’s plans and troop movements leading up to the invasion. But what are the challenges of intelligence gathering and analysis in response to a fast-moving crisis?
Washington Must Step Up Its Engagement in Central Asia
This month, protests in Kazakhstan sparked by a sharp increase in gas prices and caused by discontent with the government spread across the country. The unrest and the ensuing violence serve not only as a cautionary tale for other Central Asian countries but also as a wake-up call for the United States.
Beth Sanner Breaks Down the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on CNN
In this CNN appearance, presidential intelligence briefer and 35-year national security leader Beth Sanner breaks down the heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as how events are escalating at the border between the two countries. As a senior-most analyst in the U.S. Intelligence Community and the former Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Sanner has observed Russia for several years and speaks expertly to its goals in this conflict, as well as when a potential planned offensive could take a place.
A Former Presidential Briefer Rethinks Truth to Power
“I think we should stop teaching ‘truth to power’,” a CIA analytic instructor once told me. That was more than a decade ago, when I ran the Agency’s new analyst training program. My first reaction was shock and surprise. After all, it is central to the CIA ethos and is literally carved into the wall of its lobby, “And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.”