Trump’s Asia Trip: Full Agenda, Big Challenges
Here is my take on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting on @CNN this morning. Zooming out a bit, this Administration came in talking about the need to focus on Asia, including pulling resources from other parts of the world to do so. But this is the next week will mark the first time that Trump has gone […]
What are we planning for Venezuela?
I joined CNN AC360 tonight, alongside Adam Kinzinger and Spider Marks, to discuss the President’s apparent acknowledgment today of a Presidential Finding for CIA to conduct lethal covert action inside Venezuela. A couple of points. First, oopps…or shhhhhh…covert operations are supposed to be, well, covert (definition: not openly acknowledged or displayed). Enough said. Second, these […]
Historic Day for the Middle East
I joined Anderson Cooper 360 with Brett McGurk to talk about this tremendous, historical day in the Middle East. I’m hopeful that we will see Israeli living hostages returned to their families by this weekend. I also hope that a return of most of the deceased hostages, a partial withdrawal of IDF troops, and the […]
The Terrorism Surge: Key Trends and Implications for Global Security
What a tragic week, with the loss of a young father, husband, son, and friend to many. I didn’t know Charlie, but I can say that no matter what one’s political views, we should be saddened and angered by such political violence. This seems like a trend: this year a political attack in Minnesota that […]
Pressure on India is not pressure on Russia
Pressure on India is not pressure on Russia. We are making a strategic error by claiming to punish India for supporting Russia. This is largely a ruse; the 50% secondary tariffs on India have little to do with Russia. This clip from Thursday focuses on Russia-Ukraine, making the point that we have not applied any pressure […]
Next Stop Alaska
This is a moving story, but my CNN hits on Thursday and Wednesday still provide good context. Where we are now. It looks like Trump and Putin are meeting on Friday, 15 August. The President says that the deal they will discuss involves land swaps, which sounds similar to proposals they floated and Putin rejected […]
Sabotage Without Warning: Why the Gray Zone Could Be America’s Biggest Blind Spot
Below is a partial transcript from The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group. The briefing has been lightly edited for length and clarity. For more background on recent Gray Zone attacks, the Cipher Brief has a good rundown. The Cipher Brief: How are you thinking about the increase in activities and what concerns does that lead to? […]
Gaza Starves While World Fiddles
The Gaza peace process seems over for now. I said in this clip on 25 July that the US withdrawal was a negotiating tactic. I don’t think that is where we are now. Pres. Trump seems increasingly frustrated with the humanitarian situation, but is still basically saying this is Israel’s problem, except that we look […]
Nothing New About “Russia, Russia, Russia” Accusations
My take on the recent dredging up of the very old story of Russian influence efforts against the 2016 election. This controversy is really much ado about nothing new, and it seems to me that it really isn’t about Russian influence efforts at all. Politics…sigh. I have never believed in the charge of Trump’s “collusion” […]
How the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prediction Market Made Analysis Better
I joined with my friend, Adam Siegel, whose company, Cultivate, ran the ICPM, to write this piece about why these forecasting tools help produce more rigorous analysis and more clarity on assessments for both the analysts who contribute and the policymakers who read them. There is so much buzz around the Polymarket, if you wonder […]
Awaiting Penalties on Russia
Here is my latest on the Russia-Ukraine war. Not cheerful news, but I think it’s fair. This war is not near its end. President Putin continues to press for his maximalist aims (taking Ukrainian territory, including territory that it does not occupy and is not likely to be able to capture for years if ever, […]
