Here is my latest on the Russia-Ukraine war. Not cheerful news, but I think it’s fair. This war is not near its end. President Putin continues to press for his maximalist aims (taking Ukrainian territory, including territory that it does not occupy and is not likely to be able to capture for years if ever, neutering Ukraine’s military so it cannot defend itself in the future, and barring any Ukrainian relationship with NATO to ensure that no country will come to its defense). He is doing this because he is confident that he can without penalty from the U.S. Yes, I’m delighted that President Trump is standing with NATO, Article 5, and support for European procurement of U.S. weapon systems for Ukraine. But Putin doesn’t believe that our President will impose 100% tariffs on countries that are buying Russian oil and gas (but not aiding Ukraine), like China, India, and Brazil. Such tariffs would mean that the U.S. would impose 100% tariffs on top of the current tariffs, which could be between 130-150% for China, 150% for Brazil, 126% for India (depending on tariff negotiations and deadline extensions).
Regarding Russia’s aerial attacks on Ukraine, they are up 650% for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year; civilian casualties are 50% higher, numbering over 6,700. Since the war started, June marked the highest monthly total, and July is on track to top this. We should expect some nightly attacks to reach 1,000 drones later this year. Ukraine is also stepping up drone attacks, striking defense factories and supply chains. Ukraine is also bringing the war to the Russian citizens by using drones to shut down commercial airports regularly. More Patriots are great, but they won’t solve either the problem of defending against Russia’s drones or forcing them to the negotiating table. Let’s remember that Putin rejected Trump’s negotiated settlement offer, which I’ve seen some describe as “very generous to Russia” but others would describe as Ukrainian capitulation. Not enough for Putin. He won’t stop unless he feels he must.
