
Awaiting Penalties on Russia
Here is my latest on the Russia-Ukraine war. Not cheerful news, but I think it’s fair. This war is not near its end. President Putin continues to press for his maximalist aims (taking Ukrainian territory, including territory that it does not occupy and is not likely to be able to capture for years if ever, neutering Ukraine’s military so it cannot defend itself in the future, and barring any Ukrainian relationship with NATO to ensure that no country will come to its defense). He is doing this because he is confident that he can without penalty from the U.S. Yes, I’m delighted that President Trump is standing with NATO, Article 5, and support for European procurement of U.S. weapon systems for Ukraine. But Putin doesn’t believe that our President will impose 100% tariffs on countries that are buying Russian oil and gas (but not aiding Ukraine), like China, India, and Brazil. Such tariffs would mean that the U.S. would impose 100% tariffs on top of the current tariffs, which could be between 130-150% for China, 150% for Brazil, 126% for India (depending on tariff negotiations and deadline extensions). Regarding Russia’s aerial attacks on Ukraine, they are up 650% for the

