Wagner Group Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was a violent man who lived life on a knife’s edge; that he reportedly met a violent end seems both fitting and unsurprising. Most commentators have made this point, remarking that the only surprise was that it took so long.

In the wake of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 36-hour mutiny and the scant and the confusing smoke signals emanating from the Kremlin since then, evidence of Vladimir Putin’s decision-making disfunction and his way forward are coming into focus. How he manages these issues in the coming weeks may very well determine Putin’s ability to maintain his grip on power over the long run.

It appears that the U.S. Intelligence Community scored a success in warning senior leaders that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning some sort of armed action against the Russian military.  We would not have known that had not people inside the U.S. Government shared this with the press. 

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, the prevailing view in Washington was that Russian President Vladimir Putin had become a master of the geopolitical game. He had a well-armed and capable war machine and had managed to extend Moscow’s influence well beyond Russia’s near abroad into Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Yet although Putin has not lived up to this hype given his disastrous late-February blitz, the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

This month, protests in Kazakhstan sparked by a sharp increase in gas prices and caused by discontent with the government spread across the country. The unrest and the ensuing violence serve not only as a cautionary tale for other Central Asian countries but also as a wake-up call for the United States.