China Won’t Replace the U.S. in the Middle East

At this moment, the Saudis have a far greater confluence of interests with the Russians on the price of oil than they do with the United States on regional security. That is because the Saudis and others have lost confidence that the United States is committed to regional security and stability.

On Gaza, Trump Says the Quiet Part Out Loud – and Then Some

Embedded in President Trump’s shocking proposal to “own” and develop the Gaza Strip are some uncomfortable truths and even some “common sense,” as he has described it. But then there is this: his plan is in fact ethnic cleansing, unacceptable morally and in clear violation of international law and norms.

The Houthis are undeterred

Military escalation will not end the group’s terror campaign. By Beth Sanner, a former deputy director of national intelligence at ODNI and served as President Donald Trump’s intelligence briefer during his first term, and Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis and a senior fellow at Defense Priorities.

Memo to the President: A ‘Perfect Pressure Campaign’ Against Iran

MEMO TO THE PRESIDENT — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for their thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in office, what message would you want to deliver?

The Axis of Upheaval

Michael and Andy speak with Beth Sanner, former CIA analyst and Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration, about the national security challenges facing the next U.S. president. They explore the complex relationships between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, rising tensions in the South China Sea, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Israel’s Internal Division are Opportunities for its Adversaries

Before Hamas’ attack on October 7, Israel’s security leaders issued multiple warnings that internal strife – then mainly over Netanyahu’s pursuit of judicial reform – was making Israel dangerously vulnerable to attack by its adversaries.

After Resignation Of Israel’s Intelligence Chief, Will Other Heads Roll?

The human tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza and Israel reminds us how important it is to get strategic forecasting right. While in no way excusing Hamas’ culpability for 7 October, we also cannot dismiss the fact that the failure to anticipate and prepare for such an attack has had grave consequences for communities on both sides of this conflict, undermined efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the region, and affected global interests through the expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea and potentially beyond.

Executive Briefing | Navigating US-Asia Relations in an Era of Tech Competition with Beth Sanner

Joining us from the United States, Beth Sanner is one of the most influential experts in Security and Intelligence and has served as a trusted adviser to multiple US Presidents, congressional and cabinet officials. She has held senior leadership positions in the CIA’s Directorate of Analysis, including leading the analytic effort on South Asia.

Beyond Taiwan: “Are There Other Crocodiles Closer to the Boat?” & “The United States in the Indo-Pacific: Pivoting or Pretending.”

Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer of Centre for a New American Security & Beth Sanner, Senior fellow at Harvard University Belfer Centre & Former Deputy Director for National Intelligence, addresses the National Press Club of Australia on "Beyond Taiwan: Are There Other Crocodiles Closer to the Boat?" & "The United States in the Indo-Pacific: Pivoting or Pretending."

Prigozhin’s Final Lesson was that not even He Could Escape Kremlin Rules

Wagner Group Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was a violent man who lived life on a knife’s edge; that he reportedly met a violent end seems both fitting and unsurprising. Most commentators have made this point, remarking that the only surprise was that it took so long.

Prigozhin’s Uncertain Fate

In the wake of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 36-hour mutiny and the scant and the confusing smoke signals emanating from the Kremlin since then, evidence of Vladimir Putin’s decision-making disfunction and his way forward are coming into focus. How he manages these issues in the coming weeks may very well determine Putin’s ability to maintain his grip on power over the long run.

Prigozhin’s Mutiny: A Reminder About Analytic Humility

It appears that the U.S. Intelligence Community scored a success in warning senior leaders that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning some sort of armed action against the Russian military. We would not have known that had not people inside the U.S. Government shared this with the press.

Regions

Beth’s trusted analysis on countries and regions, such as Ukraine-Russia, China, the Middle East and Iran, India, and Europe, provide information leaders need for action and the public needs to understand our complex world.