It’s been a while since I’ve written a substantive post on Iran…too many ups and downs when it is actually just Groundhog Day. But I think we have enough information to observe that Iran appears to be in a different place, even if we are not. Iran has assumed a more confident and aggressive strategic posture in response to US offers to negotiate. They are on the offensive with the aim of forcing US concessions on control of the Strait. Let’s look at a timeline of the last week of events. If you were Iran, what might you conclude about US constraints and resolve? 26-27 July — Cyber attacks on municipal water systems in seven states. All signs point to Iran. Hackers reset passwords and system access, but did not manipulate chemical levels (which could be life-threatening) as far as has been reported. Iran is saying…look what we can do to Americans. 27 July — After 13 days of strikes, Pres Trump declared the end “at Iran’s request” 28 July — Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at US troops in Jordan during Pres. Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu, the first Iranian pre-emptive strike of its kind. As Ben Taleblu says in

If your head is spinning over what is happening with our war/ceasefire with Iran and what is next, you are not alone. All of us are trying to get our heads around what is happening and the way ahead. Here is my hot take about today on CNN AC360 with Anderson Cooper and my colleague, Alyssa Farah Griffin. Let me add a couple of points to what is said in the clip. First, boy, are things murky. I am pretty confident that the Intelligence Community knows a lot more about what is going on inside Iran than we do on the outside, and it was good to see CIA Director Ratcliffe was at the WH meetings today to discuss the way forward. ➤ Nonetheless, reports suggest that we are collectively having trouble understanding who is making decisions. Sure, there are factions in Iran, and I lean toward the idea that these are between IRGC factions, not so much political leaders (who never have had much agency and surely have less now that Iran is on a war footing) vs IRGC. The difference now is that we do not know who is adjudicating these factions and making the ultimate decision. That